Politics, power, and a certain orange visitor returning.
I don’t want this to become another American political commentary—there are plenty already, and we have our own political circus to watch.
But sometimes, an international political event is too consequential and entertaining to ignore. Here we are.
Donald Trump is officially in his lame-duck phase, for real and for good. Not the usual speculation about his downfall or claims that Republicans still rally behind him.
This time, voters acted decisively.
The midterm elections dealt a stunning blow to Republicans. Democrats flipped both chambers of Congress—taking the House and, more importantly, the Senate—and made significant gubernatorial gains, even in traditionally Republican states.
As of this writing, Democrats held a clear lead in both chambers, with some races still undecided. This wasn’t just a poor night for Trump; it was a political earthquake.
And the timing couldn’t be sweeter.
America has handed Trump an unwelcome gift two years before his term ends: a Congress that no longer answers to him.
Two years to go, but the political clock is ticking
Let's put things into perspective.
Trump's second, non-consecutive term ends January 20, 2029. Under the 22nd Amendment, he cannot run for a third elected term, so his presidential future was already limited before this midterm setback.
The midterms have simply hastened the erosion of his political influence.
The issue isn’t that Democrats suddenly gained widespread popularity—they still face internal divisions, ideological clashes, and leadership challenges.
Rather, voters sent a clear message: they're dissatisfied with the country's direction and willing to punish the party in the White House.
Several factors fueled this electoral blow.
First, the eight-month-old war with Iran. While Trump claims the military action was necessary to stop Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, its impact has hit American households in ways no speech can undo.
Second, fuel prices.
The Associated Press reports average gasoline hit $4.33 per gallon in October—about 45% higher than pre-war levels. Diesel rose 68%. Disrupted Middle East oil shipments, especially uncertainties around the Strait of Hormuz, have also driven up transportation and production costs.
And then there is the affordability crisis.
Compounding the rising fuel prices, groceries, housing, healthcare, transportation, and everyday household expenses have become ongoing political headaches. It's crucial to separate the cumulative inflation Americans faced over years from the added costs driven by Trump’s policies. Not every high grocery price stems from the White House, but the president can't campaign on lowering costs and then ignore how his actions worsen the problem.
Trump admitted the Iran war impacted the results. Vice President JD Vance went further, blaming the war for Republican losses. Trump, unsurprisingly, insisted the conflict was justified and said he would not have acted differently.
Congratulations. You got your senseless war, and now you face a Democratic Congress.
The lesson for politicians: voters don't care how impressive your foreign-policy rhetoric sounds when they're at the gas pump watching prices rise.
You can sell national security, patriotism, and American greatness. But try selling that to someone whose household budget tightens every week.
Welcome to divided government, Mr. President
Now comes the interesting constitutional part.
In January 2027, Democrats will control the new Congress—holding the House Speaker and Senate leadership roles, committee chairs, legislative agendas, and congressional oversight.
Hakeem Jeffries is poised to become House Speaker, with Chuck Schumer leading the Democratic Senate majority. The election also yielded notable Senate gains in traditionally Republican states like Texas, South Carolina, and Kansas.
Trump will not suddenly lose his presidential powers. He remains commander-in-chief, can nominate officials, negotiate with foreign governments, direct the executive branch, and sign or veto legislation—no Democratic Speaker's permission needed to issue an executive order.
Yet, exercising presidential power and advancing a legislative agenda are very different challenges.
His agenda will face a less accommodating Congress. Republicans who once supported him may become cautious, especially those facing voters in 2028.
Democrats will wield subpoena powers, conduct committee investigations, and demand accountability under congressional scrutiny.
Expect hearings, document requests, witnesses, and officials facing tough questions under oath.
For an administration used to dismissing congressional opposition, the next two years could be exhausting.
Then there’s the veto.
Trump has threatened to veto Democratic bills but signaled he doesn’t want to spend two years vetoing everything.
He has the constitutional right to reject bills, but Congress can override vetoes with a two-thirds vote in both chambers—not just a simple majority or a few Republicans crossing the aisle.
That is a considerably higher hurdle.
Even with Democratic majorities, overriding a presidential veto requires bipartisan support. Republicans must choose whether to defend the president or back specific legislation.
Good luck getting everyone on board.
Nominations pose another challenge.
The Senate must provide advice and consent on major presidential appointments—federal judges, cabinet officials, ambassadors—with most confirmations needing a simple majority.
Trump can nominate but cannot demand Senate approval.
A Democratic Senate can reject nominees, delay proceedings, or demand more acceptable candidates, making it harder for him to reshape the judiciary and fill key government roles.
Meanwhile, in the lame-duck period before January, Republicans still control the Senate and may rush judicial and other appointments while they can.
In other words, Trump is not powerless, but the era of viewing Congress as an extension of his campaign is ending. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is what divided government looks like.
Manila, get the red carpet ready
Here’s where this American political drama touches Southeast Asia.
The Philippines will chair ASEAN in 2026 under the theme Navigating Our Future, Together. The APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting takes place in Shenzhen, China, after that on November 18–19.
Trump's itinerary involves both countries: Manila for ASEAN, followed by Shenzhen for APEC.
His previous visit was November 12–14, 2017, when he attended the 31st ASEAN Summit during his first presidential term.
This was Trump's only meeting with then-President Rodrigo Duterte, who never visited the U.S. as president and is now incarcerated at The Hague, awaiting the main trial by the ICC over his EJKs this November 30.
Let's get to the political theatre.
There will be the usual diplomatic handshakes, motorcade, security, staged photos, and all the formalities of welcoming an American president.
Yes, our government will welcome him—that's diplomatic protocol. It doesn't mean everyone in Malacañang agrees with Trump.
The US remains a key Philippine security and economic partner through the Mutual Defense Treaty, Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), ongoing military ties, and the complex South China Sea situation.
No matter opinions on Trump personally, the bilateral relationship can’t be turned off because one American president is controversial.
Marcos Jr. has his own diplomatic calculus—balancing the US alliance with regional tensions, trade issues, and ties to China and ASEAN neighbors.
The real question: after a humiliating electoral setback, will Trump arrive in Manila with a different negotiating posture, or stick to his usual routine?
You know it: America First rhetoric, demanding more from allies, praising himself, and asserting he's the most popular person in the room.
Maybe this time, those managing his itinerary will remind him that not every international event is a campaign rally.
And then come the protesters...
Left-wing protest groups definitely won't welcome Trump's visit.
The National Democrats (NatDems), progressive organizations and anti-imperialist activists are already preparing to oppose him. This isn't just speculation anymore.
After the Republican defeat, progressive organizations and civil society groups led by Bagong Alyansang Makabayan protested Trump's planned visit, carrying the message "Trump Not Welcome."
They also expressed concerns about Pax Silica, a US-led initiative involving strategic technology supply chains and critical minerals -- wherein the Philippines is a signatory since April.
We can expect the usual banners, placards, chants, and slogans—some looking like they were dusted off from 1970s protests, laminated, and revived.
Take it away, boys!
But here’s my concern with the purist factions of the Philippine left.
Protesting is a legitimate democratic act. Opposing American military policy, criticizing foreign intervention, and questioning military agreements are valid public debates.
The Philippines’ complicated history with American power shouldn’t be ignored.
Yet, there's a difference between holding a consistent ideology and crafting a political strategy that persuades beyond your circle.
Organizing demonstrations, issuing manifestos, repeating familiar slogans, and gaining media coverage don’t automatically convert into electoral support.
And perhaps that is worth considering.
Take the 2025 party-list elections: Akbayan led with about 2.78 million votes—6.63 percent—a significant electoral achievement, not just a social media win.
The lesson is that progressive politics can attract a much broader base by focusing on issues voters relate to.
Ideologically rigid groups should ask if their messaging truly reaches beyond the already convinced.
Being consistently anti-imperialist is one thing; building an electorally competitive political organization is another.
The same applies to the right—being loudly pro-Trump doesn’t automatically make a group relevant to Filipino voters.
For the record, I wasn't able to see Kanan Partylist (on Facebook) as a legitimate, registered party-list on COMELEC’s certified list. They didn't rank in the last cycle, as far as I'm concerned. And I doubt these cellar-dwelling, chronically online people behind them would register, cement their nominees, and run for the coming 2028 cycle. (Come out of the bushes and be men as you claimed to be!)
The bigger picture
Ultimately, Trump’s visit comes at a pivotal moment for both countries.
In Washington, he faces an opposition-controlled Congress. His administration must navigate investigations, legislative roadblocks, nomination battles, and a Republican Party grappling with a crushing electoral defeat.
In Manila, he confronts a government balancing a crucial diplomatic tie with domestic political criticism and the harsh realities of Philippine foreign policy.
In Shenzhen, he will meet APEC leaders, including China’s, amid ongoing regional concerns over trade, technology, security, and economic cooperation.
The midterms don’t render Trump irrelevant globally. The U.S. remains a major economic and military power, and the president holds significant executive authority.
But the election showed something crucial: even a president who dominates headlines, commands loyal followers, and projects invincibility can be checked by voters.
That’s the strength of functioning democratic institutions.
You don’t always need to remove a president to force reconsideration—sometimes, you just strip away their congressional majority.
And that’s exactly what American voters did.
For two years, Trump must contend with Democrats eager to scrutinize his administration and Republicans who may realize their seats aren’t guaranteed MAGA lifelines.
As for the Philippines, let’s respectfully welcome the visiting leader, follow diplomatic protocols, stay vigilant, and allow peaceful protests. But hosting a foreign leader isn’t endorsing their politics.
Trump will leave. The ASEAN meetings will end. Motorcades will vanish, and protesters will pack up. The bigger question: what happens after politicians, diplomats, and demonstrators depart?
For Trump, the countdown to January 2029 grows more uncomfortable. For Democrats, the test is to govern, not just oppose. And for Filipinos, there’s a lesson in watching another democracy exercise its institutions.
Take it away, boys. But remember: slogans are easy. Governing is hard. ☕
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